The Devens Economic Analysis Team is reporting that an ownership model for redeveloped housing units at Vicksburg Square in Devens could net more in property taxes than the rental plan proposed by developer Trinity Financial.

In its charge to the Devens Economic Analysis Team, Harvard's Board of Selectmen asked it to analyze the "projected revenues from property taxes based on the Trinity proposal." Trinity is proposing 246 rental housing units, 80 percent of which will be income restricted (affordable) housing and 20 percent will be market rate. Preference in housing will be given to veterans and older individuals and their families.

In its Sept. 20 report, DEAT compared Trinity's all-rental model with an ownership model and an affordable-to-market rate ratio set by the Devens Reuse Plan at 25 percent affordable, 75 percent market rate.

Trinity proposes to develop all four of the major buildings in Vicksburg Square at a cost of $83 million. Trinity's Vicksburg Square assessed value was determined by a valuation method called the "capitalization of income," which is based on the total assessed value of the property, set by the Devens assessor at $15,701,653. Applying the Devens tax rate $13.25 per $1,000 of assessed value to this valuation yields an annual property tax of $208,047 once the project is completely built out.

Because the income-restricted units would remain that way under the terms of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program for 40 years, property tax revenue under this model would likely remain relatively constant for that period.

In its report, DEAT used an alternative valuation method called the "for sale" method, which allows an assessor to value a property or units within a property at their sale price. For example, if a unit is priced at $200,000, it could be taxed based on that amount; likewise, if the unit were priced at $300,000, its taxes would rise proportionately.

Using this method and basing the valuation on Trinity's stated development cost of $83 million, DEAT estimated the amount of tax revenue that could be raised on Vicksburg Square in an ownership sales model, at the Devens tax rate of $13.25 per $1,000 of assessed value, to be $1,100,206. The difference between taxes raised in the rental model and those raised in the hypothetical ownership model is $892,159, according to the DEAT report.

Victor Normand, DEAT chairman, told the Press this week that the use of the "for sale" model was intended solely for comparison purposes, not to propose that the model be used to market the property. In fact, the prices in DEAT's model do not correspond to today's market prices.

Redfin.com, a real estate marketing website, as recently as last week, advertised a 1,250 square-foot, three-bedroom, 1.5 bath condo for sale at Devens at a market rate of $152,900, much less expensive than the $385,500 cited in the DEAT model.