Harvard should support a change in zoning to allow nearly 250 new apartments to be built at Vicksburg Square at Devens, but should resist plans to increase the number of affordable units there beyond the 25 percent cap agreed to by Ayer, Shirley, and Harvard when the former Devens military base closed in 1996, according to the Devens Economic Analysis Team.

The team reported to Selectmen this week the results of its investigation—at Selectmen's request—into the financial impact of a plan by Boston-based developer Trinity Financial to convert four historic buildings currently zoned as a technology center at Vicksburg Square into residential housing.

The town should also insist on seeing the language of any agreements negotiated between the state and the developer before approving the project, DEAT said.

In a proposal to MassDevelopment, the state agency responsible for the redevelopment of Devens, Trinity has offered to create 246 new housing units ranging in size from one to three bedrooms, but has asked to designate 80 percent of them as low income or very low income units, a more than 300 percent increase over the current limit. Not only must the Vicksburg buildings be rezoned as residential and a land disposition agreement negotiated with MassDevelopment, but the Devens Reuse Plan, which specifies the affordable housing cap, would have to be changed and approved by the surrounding towns.

"From the point of view of Vicksburg Square being a benefit to the redevelopment of Devens, that change in zoning would benefit the reuse plan," DEAT Chairman Victor Normand told Selectmen. "We think as a committee that the zoning change makes sense, but altering the reuse plan doesn't seem to be the thing to do."

In its analysis, DEAT found that by keeping the existing 25 percent cap in place and by selling the units as condos rather than renting them as apartments, tax revenues from the properties at current Devens rates would be five times higher than the amount generated by the Trinity proposal. Projected revenues under the Trinity proposal, the committee estimated, would be $208,047, while under the DEAT model the amount would be $1,100,206.

Concluded the report: "The property tax revenue for ownership units has a greater potential to keep up [with] the actual cost of providing municipal services than income restricted rental units."

The committee did its analysis "so we could take a look at both ends of the spectrum," Normand said.

"We're not recommending this as a plan," added DEAT member Paul Green. "This is a what-if, for purposes of analysis."

DEAT did not confine its analysis to revenues. Selectmen also wanted to know what impact the Vicksburg development might have on the population of Devens, especially the number of school-age children, and its effect on costs for other services, such as fire and ambulance, as well as site preparation and construction that might be the responsibility of MassDevelopment.

The committee accepted the Trinity estimate that the population of Devens could rise by as much as 600 once all of its apartments were rented out. Studies by two consulting firms hired by Trinity have estimated the number of school age children would rise by 77 to 112. DEAT has estimated that if its alternate ownership-based plan were adopted, with its cap of 25 percent affordable units, the school-age population would rise by 58 to 85 children. The cost of these changes to Harvard would depend on whether Harvard takes in some or all of the new Devens children. In the latter case, the committee estimated, the additional cost to the town would be between $400,000 and $600,000.

Regarding the cost of non-school municipal services, the committee was unable to reach a firm conclusion, other than to note that the addition of 600 residents to the town would be a 9 percent increase in population.

"A population increase of this size will increase…operating costs for all services provided by the town," the report said.

After their presentation, both Normand and Green told the Press they urged the town to consider the human factor as well as the financial and physical aspects of a development the size of Vicksburg Square.

"If you were plunking this development down in Leominster, which is a fairly large town, it wouldn't radically change the character of Leominster," Green said. The Vicksburg project, however, is a large one in relation to the roughly 100 residences at Devens today, he said. "It will not only have a character of its own, it will presumably affect the property values of the existing units of housing there….It could make half of the units there affordable."

"I think…it goes back to the wisdom of capping the affordable housing percentage in the reuse plan," added Normand. "It really was there to protect the residential core. When you alter that, it begins to affect the revenue this project generates; it begins to affect the availability of housing as an asset to the redevelopment of Devens. When you raise that percentage, it triggers a lot of changes."

Even if Trinity modifies its proposal, perhaps allowing for ownership of some units and a reduction in the number of affordable units it wants, the company must still negotiate a land disposition with MassDevelopment and successfully argue for a change to the Devens zoning law. Selectmen should insist on reviewing the actual language of these documents as they are developed, said Normand.

"The devil is in the details," he said.