Given that we are in a recession and surrounded by ominous news at every turn, we wanted to know—how are local residents and businesses reacting? Panicking? Pulling in their belts? Sighing with resignation? Postponing vacations? Getting ready to give “the talk” to their children about fewer presents under the tree this year? It seems that all these reactions, and more, are permeating the fabric of town life.
According to Renee Senes, resident of East Bare Hill Road, and principal of Senes Capital Investors in Harvard, she sees her local clientele as remarkably unscathed. Yes, they are being more cautious, but no one is raising the alarms. “In reality, I hear a lot of talk but, truthfully, I haven’t seen a lot of changes,” she says. “We talk about it constantly—people ask for my opinion on what they should be doing. I find it interesting that they’re not making changes.”
“In the beginning, people seemed resigned to the fact. At first, there was a lot of panic and trepidation, and then they believed that it wouldn’t last. Now it’s dawned on people that we’re in it for the long haul and will have to ride it out.”
When asked about the stock market and how her clients are reacting, she notes the reluctance of people to get back into the market. “Younger people realize they have a lot of years to go before retiring,” she says. Sounding very much the investment counselor, she tells them, “History tells us that the market will turn around, but there will be a long recession.” She doesn’t even try to predict the timing.
Asked about vacation plans, Senes says that people are worrying about “funding their children’s colleges and their retirements, particularly those who have had kids later in life.” They look at their children’s poorly performing 529 accounts, and their own battered retirement accounts, and are anxious.
Putting off retirement does seem to be the new reality. “People are seriously considering working longer than they intended,” she says. Senes said she sits down with her clients and examines their anticipated Social Security benefits and timing. “Then they think, ‘maybe I’ll work another couple of years or part-time.’”
One area that does concern Senes is the fact that “massive job losses will have a domino effect on the economy, and one of the ways that people cut spending is on charitable contributions.” She notes that in past work with Friends of the Council on Aging, she was pleased to see neighbors contribute to the Elderly and Disabled Fund to provide heating assistance to their neighbors. It’s not clear if the numbers are down this year.
Ask Marisa Tomasic of Tahanto Trail, owner of the upscale Touché Salon in Acton, and she’s frank about her business and her clients, many of whom come from Harvard. Born in Croatia and having worked in high-end salons in New York City and Boston, she has another take on what she sees.
“People here live in a sensible way and are thrifty anyway,” she says. “In other parts of America, people are spending more and maybe more frivolously—areas like New York and Dallas, or L.A. People here are more frugal.”
But, says Tomasic, “Hair always grows and people have to come back!” She points out that hair color is “a necessity, a commitment. Maybe they’ll buy one less sweater or recycle last year’s wardrobe” to afford it. Haircuts are another matter, of course, and clients will stretch out the time between appointments.
At this point during our talk, the customer in the next chair at Touché jumps into our conversation. She talks about her small son asking about the economy. She tells me, “He’s always had everything—there was never enough room under the tree for all his presents.” This Christmas, she told him, there will only be five presents. The next day, he came back to ask her if that means five presents per person.
Tomasic says that she’s seeing more of her customers playing detective to find good prices. “Now, with the Internet, they research prices and will buy online. They’ll pick your brain for recommendations—I am in the business of selling my expertise, my services—that’s my advantage.”
Like Senes, she sees a difference between her younger and her more seasoned clients in their attitudes about economic conditions. “I hear concern among some clients [in the latter group] about their investments. They’re not putting money into the stock market; they’re looking for security,” she says.
Longtime Harvard retailer, Gail Conlin, part-owner of Westward Orchards, agrees in principle with Tomasic. “People will buy what they want to buy, but they are being more cautious,” she says. Overseeing the operations during last weekend’s open house at Westward’s store, she said that more people seem to be using credit cards this Christmas. Is she running the operation any differently during this down economy? Conlin admits to being “more careful” in purchasing stock this Christmas season.
Adam Horowitz, purveyor to the town of Harvard and owner of “The General,” was asked how the economy has affected his new business. “Having only opened in July, we haven’t seen a full seasonal cycle,” he said. “We’ve moved through the summer, school, and the holiday cycles—there’s little to gauge against.”
Any change in buying patterns?
“There’s no indication of any dramatic change,” he says. “We’re noticing a pattern of product shift, to which we’ve adjusted. There’s a more cautious approach—to less exotic, less expensive products.” In fact, he says, “There’s been a pick-up in eating at home—we’re supplying more products to complete a meal.”
Horowitz takes it all quite calmly. “It’s our responsibility to shift accordingly,” he says. “People will continue to look after their families, and we will provide for them.”
Are people switching to more credit cards? There’s no trend, says Horowitz. “Our approach to this business is to weather a very long and slow recovery,” he says. In the end, he adds, the General Store’s success will be measured by how well it listens to the requests of its customers.
Ask Connie Dutton at Harvard Dry Cleaners, and she’ll tell you that “peak season” in dry cleaning is October through December. How is business?
“A little down. People are trying to save money,” she says. “People have lost jobs. Normally, as the weather gets colder, we have more business—more sweaters, more coats and jackets.” Now, however, she sees people wearing more washable, casual clothes, rather than the usual dry-cleanables. Alterations continue to be stable, as people try to get more wear from their clothes.
Does she see use of more charge cards than cash? It’s about the same, she says.
Ira Grossman, sanitarian for Nashoba Associated Boards of Health and agent of Harvard’s health board, says, “Things are definitely slower,” particularly for anything involving new construction. He talks of the “messes” involved with foreclosures and abandoned buildings, both from a health and safety perspective and from the point of view of tenants caught up in their landlords’ problems. Meetings are being cancelled, or considerably shortened, to reflect the downturn in demand for septic and well work. Is Harvard unique? No, Grossman says, “All the towns in our region are in the same boat.”
The statistics
With a population of more than 6,000 people, Harvard has unemployment numbers that compare favorably with the statewide 10-month average of 4.9 percent in 2008. According to the state’s website www.mass.gov, unemployment in Harvard ranged between 2.8 percent and 4.2 percent between January and October of 2008 (October is the latest month for which data are available). The U.S. unemployment statistic for this same period was 6.5 percent. November’s unemployment data for Massachusetts come out on Dec. 18.
Unexpected consequences
While cautious spending, nerves over the stock market, and the fear of joblessness are to be expected, Senes points out a surprising trend.
“People are delaying getting divorced—many have made the emotional decision to go ahead with a divorce, and are now realizing that finances are precluding them from doing it. They’re having to live in the unhappy and uncomfortable situation of having decided to divorce but being financially unable to do so. Divorce,” she says “is not a recession-proof business.” People are having to stay together, at least temporarily, “because they can’t sell the house and don’t want to have to divide the 401(k) plan.”
Christmas is coming
The question of the season is, are people cutting back on Christmas presents this year? While most people are hesitant to speak about their own families (their children read the paper), they admit to more cautiousness and price-watching.
Horowitz says, “Gift-giving is price-sensitive in relation to what we stock in the store.”
Senes says, “Everybody’s being cautious, but there’s nothing specific about people spending less in general or on any particular item.”
Dutton confirms that people are saying they’re spending less this season on presents.
With winter at our doorstep, the idea of cocooning seems increasingly attractive. Given the economy, we may be burrowing in a little bit deeper this year . . . and not necessarily with the spouse we want.
But, in the end, says the long-term-oriented Senes, “There are worse places to be than Harvard, in my lovely home, in this lovely town, with my lovely neighbors.”